Promethium by the Numbers

Does picking first help?

The home manager makes the first pick. So far home sides are 31–25, averaging 92.9 points to the away side's 90.1. That is still a small sample — a coin flipped this many times lands this unevenly fairly often — so it is a trend to watch rather than a rule.

What goes first overall

With one game's worth of players there is rarely a consensus first pick: it depends on which two offenses you drew. Here is what managers (and the bot) actually took with the first pick of a draft, and what that pick went on to score.

When each position goes, and what it scores

Quarterbacks score the most per start — 20.5 points, 2.0 times the next position — yet they are only the third position taken on average, at pick 8.5.

Points per start leave out any slot an injury substitution changed, so a substitute's points are never credited to the player he replaced.

People against the draft bot

A manager who misses the draft is drafted for by a bot that ranks the pool on projections and positional value. It made 34% of all picks. In the 12 matchups where a team drafted entirely by hand met one drafted mostly by the bot, the person won 7 and the bot 5.

The closest and the most lopsided

The closest matchup was decided by 0.5 points, drafted from NO @ BAL in Week 2. The most lopsided was 90.2 points, from DAL @ HOU in Week 4 — the same pool for both sides, and still a rout.

Average draft position

Where players actually go in a single-game draft — taken from the real picks, among players drafted at least three times. A player appears only in the weeks his game was drawn, so these are counts of drafts he was available in and taken.